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· Last updated：2026-11-12
This tool is for informational purposes only and does not constitute medical, financial, or legal advice; consult a qualified professional for advice.
Turn Polymarket odds into a probability term structure: implied probabilities by expiry, with overround removed.
Details
Paste a Polymarket event slug, event URL, or search phrase. A search phrase first returns matching events for you to choose; the tool analyzes an event only after you rerun it with that event's slug or URL. Event data comes from the public Polymarket Gamma API (no key needed). A YES share settles at $1, so its price is the implied probability (63c = 63%). The report shows a snapshot by expiry and normalizes multi-outcome markets: at one expiry the YES prices of mutually exclusive outcomes should sum to $1, so each share is divided by the total to remove the overround. Placeholder markets seeded at exactly $0.50 with zero volume and resolved markets are excluded from the normalization and flagged in the table.
Sources: Polymarket Gamma API (gamma-api.polymarket.com), Polymarket (polymarket.com).
Execution
Fill in the form, run the tool, and review the result in one place.
Samples
Related
Tool usage guide
Turn Polymarket prices into a probability snapshot by expiry. Enter an event slug or URL to analyze it directly; a search phrase returns candidates for you to choose, and analysis starts when you run the tool again with the selected slug or URL.
Background
The Polymarket event 'Fed rate cut by...?' with 13 markets at different meeting dates.
Problem
What is the market's probability of a cut by each meeting?
How to use
Enter fed-rate-cut-by-629 and run.
Outcome
6 live expiries: 0.7% by Dec 2026, 3.1% by Jan 2027, 8% by Mar 2027, 35% by Apr 2027, 31% by Jun 2027, 46.5% by Jul 2027. The dip from April to June reflects thin, zero-volume markets.
Background
A frozen 10-market excerpt for the Polymarket event 'Next CEO of NVIDIA?'; it is not a snapshot of every market in the live event.
Problem
Compare the listed outcomes after normalizing their 101.1% combined YES prices.
How to use
Enter next-ceo-of-nvidia and run.
Outcome
The ten sample YES prices total 101.1%. The leader's 29.0% raw price normalizes to 28.7% within this sample. Current live markets may differ.
The implied probability of an event plotted against time: the market's chance that the event happens by each expiry date. For a Fed rate cut it rises with the horizon (0.7% by December 2026, 46.5% by July 2027), because a cut is more likely to have happened by a later date.
For mutually exclusive outcomes in a negRisk event, the tool divides each live YES price by the sum of live YES prices at that expiry. In the frozen 10-market NVIDIA sample, 29.0% becomes 28.7% after dividing by 101.1%. Live event counts and prices can change.
For mutually exclusive outcomes in a negRisk event, the tool divides each live YES price by the sum of live YES prices at that expiry. In the frozen 10-market NVIDIA sample, 29.0% becomes 28.7% after dividing by 101.1%. Live event counts and prices can change.
Markets priced at exactly $0.50 with zero 24-hour volume are treated as placeholders, and resolved markets are excluded from live normalization. These rules apply to the data returned for the event; the report marks excluded rows.
No. The tool reads the public Gamma API, which needs no authentication for market data. It never places orders and never asks for a key.
No — they are market-implied probabilities, a snapshot of what traders are willing to pay right now. A 63% price means the market pays 63c on the dollar, not that the event is objectively 63% likely. Prices move; re-run the tool for the current snapshot.